Having a County Commission district created for you is by no means a guarantee of a win, and the pundits need to step back and take a breather from their assumptions.

Looking at the new districting map, it’s obvious that District 1 was not only carved out to enable Marty Kiar’s entry into the race, but to lock out Franklin Sands.

Moving the district line only a few feet (!) northwest would have enabled Sands to run while keeping the boundary well within Lois Wexler’s Bonaventure area.

I’m not known for criticizing the County Commission, but this map has a stench worse than Mount Trashmore, and fits right in with what the legislature is doing to Kiar’s senate district.

No, I’m not dumping on Marty Kiar, since he and I are friends.

In fact, I was the first to endorse him for the district 97 house seat way back when.

But a win is not as clear cut as the pundits seem to think.

Kiar is well known in Weston, but he has absolutely no base in Sunrise, Lauderhill or Plantation.

Known as a fierce campaigner, he’s spent eleven months campaigning for a Senate district that won’t exist much longer.

That is, unless the Florida Supreme Court puts a stop to the legislature thumbing its nose at the voter passed fair districting amendments.

So don’t expect a decision from Kiar any time soon.

If he does get into the race, he’ll have to start almost from the beginning.

Everything printed, handouts, tee shirts and others go directly into the trash.

But wait…

He’ll also have another handicap…

He essentially loses the next three months of campaigning while the legislature is in session.

That means the real campaign won’t begin until April, or about a month and a half before qualifying.

Of course the moment he enters the district 1 race, he’ll have to start raising money again since his campaign war chest built for the State Senate race won’t be any good.

The law requires Marty to contact every donor and request permission to apply their funds to the new campaign.

Some will certainly say yes, but those who have an interest in the legislature but not in the County Commission will likely say no.

A win is not impossible, but there’s no guarantee by any stretch of the imagination.

Howard Berger and Richard Kaplan will both have an edge.  Roberson’s nowhere to be found.

And I love a good horse race.

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